When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.     

Rare species habitat suitability assessment and reliability evaluation of an expert-based model: A case study of the insectivorous plant Pinguicula crystallina Sibth. et Smith subsp. hirtiflora (Ten.) Strid (Lentibulariaceae)

The development of habitat suitability models requires a large amount of data which are rarely available. In this case, researchers need to get information on the ecological features of the studied species, based on the opinion of experts or on the literature, to construct a qualitative model. However, such models cannot be rigorously evaluated, as in most cases absence points are not available. In this paper, we assess the habitat suitability for a vulnerable insectivorous plant, Pinguicula crystallina Sibth. et Smith subsp. hirtiflora (Ten.) Strid (Lentibulariaceae) in the Campania region. Our aim was to develop an expert-based, presence-only model in support of possible conservation actions. Topographic and geological features of this species suggested by the literature were used in our model. Both the Boyce index and field surveys were chosen to evaluate the model's reliability. During field surveys, 31 absence sites and 1 new presence site were identified, and differences between sites with regard to water chemistry and quality were investigated, water being an element in the species habitat. Factors that affect reliability of the model, such as the lack of a large amount of information on the species and the limited spatial resolution of geographical information system data, are discussed.     

Seemingly Unrelated Generalized Linear Models

By using deviance standardized residuals, the seemingly unrelated regression estimation procedure is extended to generalized linear models, and fitted by an iterative procedure. The matrix of cross products of standardized residuals is asymptotically multivariate normal, and can be used for further multivariate analyses and for hypothesis testing.     

Central Place Foraging in Nonpatchy Habitats

This paper deal with a model of optimal foraging in a habitat with arbitrary food distribution. It takes into account an arbitrary risk cost related to the distance to the animal's nest. Food acquisition and risk cost are accounted for in common units of fitness. The resulting problem is solved in the context of Calculus of Variations. The optimal duration of absence from the nest and the optimal spatial allocation of foraging time are obtained: the optimal strategy leads to separate the habitat into a region to exploit and a region to ignore. The definition of these two distinct regions depends on the relative importance of risk and food availability. With realistic risk costs, the resulting strategy indicates a highly selective behaviour when far from the nest, as observed in field studies. The model is also extended to take account of the need of returning to the nest to guard it or to feed the young.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

On the Information Matrix of Exponential Mixture Models with Long-term Survivors

The aim of this paper is to study the properties of the asymptotic variances of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the exponential mixture model with long-term survivors for randomly censored data. In addition, we study the asymptotic relative efficiency of these estimators versus those which would be obtained with complete follow-up. It is shown that fixed censoring at time T produces higher precision as well as higher asymptotic relative efficiency than those obtainable under uniform and uniform-exponential censoring distributions over (0, T). The results are useful in planning the size and duration of survival experiments with long-term survivors under random censoring schemes.     

Prophylactic and curative effects of Bacopa monniera in gastric ulcer models.

Bacopa monniera Wettst. (BM, syn. Herpestis monniera L; Scrophulariaceae), is an Ayurvedic drug used as a rasayana. Its fresh juice was earlier reported to have significant antiulcerogenic activity. In continuation, methanolic extract of BM (BME) standardized to bacoside-A content (percentage-38.0 ± 0.9), when given in the dose of 10–50 mg/kg, twice daily for 5 days, showed dose-dependent anti-ulcerogenic on various gastric ulcer models induced by ethanol, aspirin, 2 h cold restraint stress and 4 h pylorus ligation. BME in the dose of 20 mg/kg, given for 10 days, twice daily showed healing effects against 50% acetic acid-induced gastric ulcers. Further work was done to investigate the possible mechanisms of its action by studying its effect on various mucosal offensive acid-pepsin secretion and defensive factors like mucin secretion, mucosal cell shedding, cell proliferation and antioxidant activity in rats. BME 20 mg/kg showed no effect on acid-pepsin secretion, increased mucin secretion, while it decreased cell shedding with no effect on cell proliferation. BME showed significant antioxidant effect per se and in stressed animals. Thus, the gastric prophylactic and curative effects of BME may be due to its predominant effect on mucosal defensive factors.